Meta's Arena prediction app: Zuckerberg's new bet on engagement, no cash wagering

Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has directed the company to develop a prediction markets app called Arena, opening a new front in the push to turn forecasting into a mainstream consumer product.

The new platform—first reported by Reuters—will allow users to participate using video game-style points rather than real money. The structure is intended to sidestep the regulatory risks that have faced rivals, notably Polymarket and Kalshi, which operate in tightly watched corners of the US market.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to create a prediction market application similar to Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket, but with lower stakes as users won’t likely wager real money.
— Bloomberg (link)

Prediction markets let users bet on the outcomes of future events—like elections or company earnings—with odds set by aggregation of user sentiment. Arena represents Meta’s most ambitious move in this area since its now-shelved Forecast project, which never fully moved beyond experimental stages.

According to a report by Forbes, users would initially place bets with points, though the use of real money could be added in the future. That approach allows Meta to gauge uptake and demand without triggering betting laws that have limited competitor growth (Forbes).

Polymarket and Kalshi, Arena’s closest competitors, operate prediction markets where users can legally put actual cash on the line, but their growth has been constrained by US regulatory scrutiny. Meta’s points-based model aims for broader reach while avoiding legal complexity.

Industry observers say Meta’s move reflects the wider search among big platforms for fresh engagement loops as time spent on legacy offerings like Facebook and Instagram plateaus. The company is betting social-based forecasting, gamified with points, could plant the next viral format.

Meta has not commented on timing or planned launch markets for Arena.